Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 0.010373 0.011720 0.013177 0.014870 0.016784 0.018881 0.021354
2025-11-16 0.008262 0.010124 0.012307 0.015058 0.018434 0.022446 0.027585
2025-11-23 0.006950 0.009003 0.011546 0.014933 0.019331 0.024859 0.032353
2025-11-30 0.006216 0.008427 0.011294 0.015288 0.020721 0.027872 0.038032
2025-12-07 0.005365 0.007564 0.010528 0.014823 0.020904 0.029234 0.041557
2025-12-14 0.004759 0.006949 0.010004 0.014591 0.021323 0.030877 0.045538
2025-12-21 0.004205 0.006338 0.009411 0.014173 0.021395 0.031985 0.048784
2025-12-28 0.003980 0.006180 0.009445 0.014658 0.022810 0.035134 0.055306
2026-01-04 0.003733 0.005960 0.009356 0.014934 0.023910 0.037872 0.061403
2026-01-11 0.003533 0.005789 0.009322 0.015279 0.025129 0.040871 0.068146
2026-01-18 0.003258 0.005472 0.009025 0.015167 0.025584 0.042660 0.073031
2026-01-25 0.003032 0.005213 0.008797 0.015139 0.026163 0.044679 0.078445
2026-02-01 0.002776 0.004886 0.008433 0.014863 0.026312 0.046016 0.082856
2026-02-08 0.002623 0.004723 0.008337 0.015041 0.027268 0.048818 0.090115
2026-02-15 0.002436 0.004484 0.008086 0.014916 0.027662 0.050646 0.095738
2026-02-22 0.002340 0.004400 0.008100 0.015271 0.028954 0.054184 0.104837
2026-03-01 0.002136 0.004098 0.007694 0.014806 0.028668 0.054770 0.108330
2026-03-08 0.001983 0.003879 0.007423 0.014575 0.028800 0.056143 0.113449
2026-03-15 0.001820 0.003629 0.007073 0.014158 0.028531 0.056709 0.116990
2026-03-22 0.001779 0.003614 0.007175 0.014642 0.030093 0.060994 0.128473
2026-03-29 0.001716 0.003550 0.007175 0.014917 0.031250 0.064548 0.138722
2026-04-05 0.001664 0.003505 0.007208 0.015262 0.032576 0.068543 0.150244
2026-04-12 0.001570 0.003362 0.007030 0.015150 0.032920 0.070509 0.157510